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Replacement rate & showroom age are major determinants of market share.

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We believe the replacement rate drives showroom age, which drives market

share, which in turn drives capacity utilization, profitability, and stock and bond

prices. OEMs with the highest replacement rate and youngest relative showroom

age have gained market share from 1999-2009 (Table 1). We expect this

relationship to remain over our forecast period of MY2010-13 (Charts 1 & 2).


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